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The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 1994 45(1):171-191; doi:10.1093/bjps/45.1.171
© 1994 by British Society for the Philosophy of Science
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A Limited Defense of the Pessimistic Induction

JESSE HOBBS

Department of Philosophy & Religion University of Mississippi

The inductive argument from the falsity of most past scientific theories (more than 100 years old) to the falsity of most present ones is defensible, I argue, if it is modified to account for the degrees of theoreticity or observationality in such theories, and the extent to which they are hedged. The case of descriptive astronomy is examined to show that most of the true theories of the 1890s were high in observationality and/or significantly hedged. The false theories of that period, however, were not even approximately true. Apparently, scientists are more interested in supplanting theories with improved observations than in producing true theories.


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