The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science Advance Access originally published online on May 16, 2005
The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 2005 56(2):191-198; doi:10.1093/bjps/axi113
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Articles |
Evidential Decision Theory and Medical Newcomb Problems
Girton College, Cambridge CB3 0JG, United Kingdom, ama24{at}hermes.cam.ac.uk
Huw Price ([1991]) has offered evidential decision theorists a defence against the charge that they make unintuitive recommendations for cases like Newcomb's Problem. He says that when conditional probabilities are assessed from the agent's point of view, evidential decision theory makes the same recommendation as intuition. I argue that calculating the probabilities in Price's way leads to no recommendation. It condemns the agent to perpetual oscillation between different options.
- Price's Argument
- Instability
- Objections
- Conclusion