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The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science Advance Access originally published online on August 10, 2005
The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 2005 56(3):487-520; doi:10.1093/bjps/axi132
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© The Author (2005). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Society for the Philosophy of Science. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oupjournals.org

Probability Theory and Causation: A Branching Space-Times Analysis

Thomas Müller

Philosophisches Seminar, LFB III, Universität Bonn, Lennéstr. 39, 53113 Bonn, Germany Thomas.Mueller{at}uni-bonn.de

We provide a formally rigorous framework for integrating singular causation, as understood by Nuel Belnap's theory of causae causantes, and objective single case probabilities. The central notion is that of a causal probability space whose sample space consists of causal alternatives. Such a probability space is generally not isomorphic to a product space. We give a causally motivated statement of the Markov condition and an analysis of the concept of screening-off.

  1. Causal dependencies and probabilities
    1.1 Background: causation in branching space-times
    1.2 What are probabilities defined for?

  2. Basic transitions
    2.1 Basics of basic transitions
    2.2 Sets of basic transitions

  3. Causal probability theory
    3.1 Some simple cases
    3.2 General causal probabilities
    3.3 Application: probability of suprema of a chain


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