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The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 2006 57(4):755-779; doi:10.1093/bjps/axl022
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© The Author (2006). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Society for the Philosophy of Science. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Generalizing the Lottery Paradox

Igor Douven and Timothy Williamson

Institute of Philosophy University of Leuven Leuven, Belgium igor.douven{at}hiw.kuleuven.be
Oxford University Oxford, OX1 2JD, UK timothy.williamson{at}philosophy.oxford.ac.uk


  Abstract

This paper is concerned with formal solutions to the lottery paradox on which high probability defeasibly warrants acceptance. It considers some recently proposed solutions of this type and presents an argument showing that these solutions are trivial in that they boil down to the claim that perfect probability is sufficient for rational acceptability. The argument is then generalized, showing that a broad class of similar solutions faces the same problem.

  1. An argument against some formal solutions to the lottery paradox
  2. The argument generalized
  3. Some variations
  4. Adding modalities
  5. Anticipated objections


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